Watching the U.S. Markets Burn
Everything is in Flux, Except Sweden's Annual Moose Migration
It’s spring and the sun is finally here after a long season of ice. The cherry trees are in bloom and if you’re into so-called slow TV, you can watch the third season of “Den Stora Älgvandringen” (The Great Moose Migration ) on Swedish Television. Moose — technically, European elk — are headed toward their summer pastures, as they do every year. Filmed way up north in Ångermanland, the show makes for what the producers call “contemplative” viewing. It might be just the right speed for me at this point.
I’m sorry for the long silence. I haven’t been able to write. The crisis in the U.S. is dire and while my heart is there, my ass is here, in Stockholm.
When I logged in to my U.S. bank account this morning, it dawned on me how much has changed, just in these few short months. The legend on the top of the page read, “FDIC-Insured ― Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.”
Hilarious!
It reminded me of other expressions from the old days, things we used to say but that you don’t hear anymore. Like: “I don’t agree with what you say, but I’ll defend to the death your right to say it.” That earnestness? That civic trust? That country that worked for its people? Gone.
Since the election, I’ve undergone an intensive reeducation, all in double time. I sought out new people who are fluent in how autocracy works and the mechanisms of the mafia state. They helped me to see with new eyes. In studying their work, I’ve learned so many things I didn’t know I didn’t know. We’ve been steering this way since the Carter Administration, but most of us didn’t perceive it. Now the U.S. is in that bad place I saw coming when I decided to leave.
My immediate problem is not how to survive this as a person, but how to approach it as a writer. I will survive this as a person by not living in the U.S., a decision I made in 2019. I will survive this as a Swedish citizen.
As a writer, it’s more complicated. When I began Notes from Exile, my idea was to explore what it was like to live abroad with this American consciousness and also how home looked from here. I still like that idea. But the premise ― that home is still there ― is shuddering under the weight of event. The America we knew is transforming into something malevolent. It’s destabilizing not only her people, but also the entire world. And it’s happening more quickly than I would have thought possible.
The past few weeks have been rough. My friends — and your friends, too, I bet — got slaughtered in the market. Everyone was down 30%. Everyone was in tears and terrified. The future seemed to just evaporate.
I got out of the market before Inauguration Day, so this round didn’t get me but I’m sure the next one will. I worry that none of us are getting out of this nightmare with a dime to our names. As William A. Finnegan at The Long Memo put it in his article, “Am I Financially Screwed Forever?”, “This isn’t bad luck. It’s not personal failure. It’s not because you didn’t hustle hard enough or download the right budgeting app. It’s because the game ended, and they’re still selling you tickets.”
Instead of writing, I’ve been glued my desk, tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I track the dollar, Treasuries and gold, up and down, all day long. And I keep a close eye on the VIX, a real-time index put out by the Chicago Board Options Exchange that measures market risk. Its nickname is the Fear Index.
I was trained to cover the markets at the Wall Street Journal, where I worked for years, back when it was a real newspaper. The markets back then didn’t act like this. Now, the president “truths” and the Dow strokes out and the 10-year Treasury yield starts spiking. He takes it back and the Dow ascends and the yield eases and we can all breathe again. As my friend Lizzy said, “It’s like we’re all in the world’s most toxic relationship and we’re elated when someone just berates us instead of beating the shit out of us.”
Our assumptions have shifted at dizzying speed. The fear is enshrouding us like a fog. In the course of a few weeks, 340 million people can no longer rely on what they thought they know. True isn’t true anymore, and safe isn’t safe. The U.S. has always been an imperfect place, but it’s always been a haven. Maybe not for people, but definitely for dollars. The creditworthiness of the U.S. and the strength of the dollar were the linchpin of the global economy. Not anymore.
Gold is where investors go when things look really bad. It’s called flight-to-safety buying and it can tell you a lot about sentiment. This week, gold priced in dollars set its 26th new record high of 2025, at least so far. This is a worrying indication, but far more serious, of course, is the on-and-off bond-market selloff. That’s the fatal coronary. That’s the terminal diagnosis, the end of the road. It won’t be tomorrow, but I am assuming that it will all burn down.
We were days, or maybe hours, from a liquidity crisis on April 9. We will probably be there again and probably soon. I don’t trust that the banks will hold, so I’ve been scrambling to get what money I have out of the U.S. and out of the dollar. I’m trying to reduce the number of junctures where this administration can touch me to zero.
But I know it probably doesn’t matter. If it burns down, it will burn all of us.
I haven’t been writing because I’m in shock, and also because I’m not an economist or an expert on fascism or a geopolitical strategist. I have no special expertise to offer that will help anyone. Also, everyone has been talking about it and the drumbeat of bleak news and dark scenarios is overwhelming. This is what I’m thinking about: How life should look after the war.
The old havens are gone, it’s true, but new havens will emerge. The Canadian response to the U.S. aggression has been magnificent. The E.U. is emerging as a last bastion of democracy and is rising powerfully to meet the moment. These have been beautiful surprises. There will be others.
When I am quiet amid the noise, when I can hear myself think, what I think is that maybe this had to happen. Many of us were blind to terrible injustices just next door. Maybe it’s time to hack out the rot and start over from scratch. Maybe the next America will be kinder and more equitable.
I couldn’t write, so I started doing collage. The unconscious likes images and I was hoping something would kick in again. I was on fire. I did collage like it was my job and suddenly the words begin to flow again and now I am back. I’m still wondering how to reconcile my American identity to my European life, still trying to square a circle, still trying to discern what it is that I see in the fog.
Thanks for your wise words. The more authoritarian and reckless this administration becomes, the riskier our country will be seen as a place to invest and make deals with. Our borrowing costs will also go up substantially, as investors seek “safer” places to invest their assets. Capital flight is a real risk to our economy.
It’s a sad state of affairs that this so called president could tank our economy so quickly because he and his cronies believe they are the “smartest” people in the room.
I'm in Mexico since before Covid. I filed for SSA the day after the election, 8 months before my date for full benefits. I'm about to sell my house here and move deeper into Mexico. I sure would love to know what options I have for some fairly short term place to put the proceeds that has nothing to do with the US finance system.